The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree Conference 2024

In the beginning of the last credit cycle, when investors were still smarting from the fallout of the Global Financial Crisis, risk tolerance was extremely low, and few borrowers could obtain leverage greater than six times EBITDA.20 However, as the cycle progressed, memories of the carnage from 2008-09 began to fade and risk-taking increased.

The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters - June 2023 Edition

As a bonus, we’ve also included an excerpt from Howard Marks’s recent memo to clients. 1 Market Outlook: Tug-of-War Howard Marks Co-Chairman The overarching theme of my sea-change thinking is that, largely thanks to highly accommodative monetary policy, we went through unusually easy times in a number of important regards over a prolonged period, but that time is over., Thus, after decades of accommodative monetary policy, cheap debt, and robust equity returns, we may now be entering a new era, as our co-chairman Howard Marks eloquently described in his 2022 memo Sea Change.

Behind the Memo - I Beg to Differ

The Illusion of Knowledge

It was that lunch that started me thinking about writing yet another memo on the futility of macro forecasting., Together, the lunch and these items inspired this memo’s theme: the reasons why forecasts are rarely helpful., I found Ferguson’s article so relevant to the subject of this memo that I’m including a link to it here., * * * In a 2001 memo called What’s It All About, Alpha?, This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2001-09-16-notes-from-ny

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: Notesfrom New York Maybe you've already read enough about last week's events, in which case you should feel free to discard this memo., I had no plans for a memo on this subject., This memo may not include much that is new to you but, as usual, I will attempt to pull together my own thoughts and what I've heard and read elsewhere., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2004-10-27-risk-and-return-today

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a rks Re: RiskandReturn Today A single word is enough to describe the overall investment world today: lackluster., In response, I wrote a piece called “The Cat, the Tree, the Carrot and the Stick” as part of my memo “What’s Going On?”, A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d 8 Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2006-09-07-dare-to-be-great

 Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : DaretoBeGreat Inoneofthemost colorful vignettes of the early 1970s, Glenn Turner, the head of Koscot Interplanetary, would fly into a small Midwestern town in his Learjet (when that was a huge deal)., This memo stems from an accumulation of thoughts on the subject of how investment management clients might best pursue superior results., Typically my thoughts pile up, and then something prompts me to turn them into a memo., * * * I hope this memo won’t come across as preachy.

2007-12-17-no-different-this-time-the-lessons-of-07

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : NoDifferentThisTime – The Lessons of ‘07 On July 16, I published a memo called “It’s All Good.”, The bullish balloon remained unpunctured as of July 16, and some may have thought my memo unduly pessimistic., And it’ll happen again – because financial memory is short and the attraction of leverage can be irresistible., I don’t doubt that it is, and for that reason his statement calls to mind a 2005 memo titled “Hindsight First, Please (or, What Were They Thinking?).”, This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2008-01-10-now-what

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : Now W h a t ?, M y memos mostly try to explain what’s been going on in the financial arena and how things got that way., And there you have it: five pages devoted to the past in a memo about the future., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2008-05-16-the-aviary

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : The A v i a r y R a t h e r t han dwell this time on a single subject, I want to cover a few., “The Race to the Bottom” (February 2007) is one of my favorite memos., My December memo “No Different This Time” included the following among the key lessons of ‘07: Investment survival has to be achieved in the short run, not on average over the long run., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.