286 results for "memo":
Showing 161 - 170 of 286 results
Further Thoughts on Sea Change
In May, I wrote a follow-up memo to Sea Change (December 2022) that was shared exclusively with Oaktree clients., This memo was originally sent to Oaktree clients on May 30, 2023.1 This Time It Really Might Be Different On October 11, 1987, I first came across the saying “this time it’s different.”, As I mentioned in my December memo, the 13 years in question were a difficult, dreary, low-return period for credit investors, including Oaktree., When I got home, I wrote the memo and began to discuss its thesis., October 11, 2023 Endnotes 1 All market data cited in this memo is as of May 30, 2023.
What Lies Ahead
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: WhatLiesAhead?, I must admit that I haven't been looking forward to writing a memo about the economic and investment implications of the attacks.
Quo Vadis?
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : Q u o V a d i s ?, I've been cautious for a long time – in fact, I don't remember ever having written a bullish piece on stocks – and this memo is unlikely to be any different.
The Folly of Certainty
And, with that, I had the subject of this memo: not whether Biden will continue campaigning or drop out – or whether he’ll win if he continues – but rather how anyone can be without doubt., , has supplied an interesting tidbit for this memo on the subject of economists’ conclusions: I use the Philly Fed’s Anxious Index (the probability of a decline in real GDP in the upcoming quarter) as an indicator that a recession has ended., Back in mid-2020, when the pandemic seemed to have become a more or less understood phenomenon, I slowed the pace of my memo writing from the one-a-week pattern of March and April., P.S.: Last summer’s Grand Slam tennis tournaments provided the inspiration for my memo Fewer Losers, or More Winners?, Similarly, this past Saturday’s women’s final match at Wimbledon has provided a snippet for this memo.
Returns Absolute Returns and Risk
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: Returns,AbsoluteReturns and Risk UWhat’s In a Name?, According to the article that inspired this memo, “Today, the term ‘absolute return’ seems to be used most often to describe what wealthy individual investors have always called hedge funds.”, When I wrote the memo “Risk” in February, I thought I had hit on something when I observed that risk is not measurable even after the fact.
Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank
A Word on Regulation In March 2011, in the aftermath of the GFC, I published a memo called On Regulation ., Combine developments like these with the reality that (a) interest rates are no longer declining or near zero; (b) the Fed can’t be as accommodative as it was in the last few crises, because of today’s elevated inflation; and (c) negative developments are popping up in portfolios, and I think the case made in my previous memo, Sea Change (December 2022), has been bolstered., * * * While I don’t foresee widespread contagion – either psychological or financial – arising from the SVB failure alone, I can’t end a memo on U.S. banks without mentioning one of the biggest worries they face today: the possibility of problems stemming from loans against commercial real estate (“CRE”), especially office buildings.
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
This time, in my fourth decade of memo-writing, I’m going to devote a few more paragraphs to tennis., In my memo Liquidity (March 2015), I included an insight from my son Andrew., The Role of Risk Bearing I’m going to conclude this memo using my favorite graph., Since writing that memo, I’ve concluded that this way of thinking about things has a great many applications., In my memo What Really Matters?
What Does the Market Know?
All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: What Does the Market Know?, ” That prompted this memo in response., The rest of this memo will be about fleshing out this theme (meaning you can stop reading here if you’ve had enough or are short on time)., If “On the Couch” wasn’t successful in convincing you this isn’t possible, this memo probably won’t be, either., I set a trap at the beginning of this memo, and I want to spring it now.
Will It Be Different This Time
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients and Friends From: Howard Marks Re: WillItBeDifferentThisTime?, Nevertheless, 51 of the 53 "top economists" surveyed by Blue Chip newsletter (my favorite experts and the subject of my July 22, 1996 memo) predict growth next year of 1.5% or more.
How Quickly They Forget
Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: How Quickly They Forget In January 2004 I received a letter from Warren Buffett (how’s that for name dropping?), And that’s the point of this memo., Market Conditions Today In May 2005, I wrote a memo entitled “There They Go Again,” complaining that investors were taking excessive comfort from mindless platitude of the type that accompany and abet the creation of every bubble., In particular, in the 30 months following the publication of that memo, high yield bonds went on to return a total of 19.7%., Prudent Behavior in a Low-Return World The 2005 memo I mentioned earlier, “There They Go Again,” proceeded from the discussion of the low and flat risk/return curve contained in “Risk and Return Today” to ponder what investors might do in times of low prospective returns and risk premiums.