303 results for "memo":

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Is It a Bubble?

 © 2025 Oaktree Capital Management, L.P All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: Is It a Bubble?, During my visits to clients in Asia and the Middle East last month, I was often asked about the possibility of a bubble surrounding artificial intelligence, and my discussions gave rise to this memo., I took the quote that opens this memo from Derek Thompson’s November 4 newsletter entitled “AI Could Be the Railroad of the 21 st Century., As I wrote in my January memo On Bubble Watch, bubbles are temporary manias in which developments in those areas become the subject of what former U.S., Derek Thompson, who supplied the quote with which I opened this memo, ended his newsletter with some terrific historical perspective: The railroads were a bubble and they transformed America.
The Indispensability of Risk

That’s why I’ve written a memo comparing investing to sports in each of the four decades I’ve been writing memos and one connecting investing and card playing in 2020., The motivation for this memo comes from an article in The Wall Street Journal of April 12 that my partner Bruce Karsh sent me entitled “Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice” by Maurice Ashley, a chess grandmaster who has been inducted into the U.S., Few people know that Bruce is a chess player, and I hadn’t thought about this fact for years, but the article provided a good reminder and moved me to dash off this memo., Relevant lessons from sports (included in past memos) are easily accessed and also very helpful: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” – Wayne Gretzky, NHL Hall of Famer “You have to give yourself a chance to fail.” – Kenny “The Jet” Smith, two-time NBA champion I’ll sum up with a paragraph from my memo of last September, Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

I thought I should comment on these developments and the outlook, and the result was a memo called Nobody Knows, published four days later., In March 2020, I reused the title of the 2008 memo for Nobody Knows II, my first memo during the Covid-19 pandemic., The Uncertain Outlook In my February memo 2024 in Review, which went only to clients, I said the word to describe the Trump administration was “uncertainty.”, Truly nobody knows, and a lot of this memo will be about things we can’t know for sure., Note that in my March 2022 memo, The Pendulum in International Affairs, I observed that between 1995 and 2020, U.S. consumer durable prices declined by 40% in real terms and total inflation averaged only 1.8% per year.
Not Enough

All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: Not Enough Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly., I’ve struggled to write this memo, and for that reason it’s late in coming.
The Folly of Certainty

And, with that, I had the subject of this memo: not whether Biden will continue campaigning or drop out – or whether he’ll win if he continues – but rather how anyone can be without doubt., , has supplied an interesting tidbit for this memo on the subject of economists’ conclusions: I use the Philly Fed’s Anxious Index (the probability of a decline in real GDP in the upcoming quarter) as an indicator that a recession has ended., Back in mid-2020, when the pandemic seemed to have become a more or less understood phenomenon, I slowed the pace of my memo writing from the one-a-week pattern of March and April., P.S.: Last summer’s Grand Slam tennis tournaments provided the inspiration for my memo Fewer Losers, or More Winners?, Similarly, this past Saturday’s women’s final match at Wimbledon has provided a snippet for this memo.
The Complete Collection

And that’s the point of this memo., That’s what this memo is about., But I think it’s worth a memo., And thus this section of my memo., In my memo What Really Matters?
Walking into the Unknown_Transcript

Looking over that year of memo writing, does anything jump out at you?, David The biggest theme, I think, of this year and the thing that I think people are going to look back on a year or so from now and talk about how amazing it was, and I’ll steal the theme from Howard’s Sea Change memo, but really, you have the ability to buy debt with an equity-like prospective return.
What Does the Market Know?

All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: What Does the Market Know?, ” That prompted this memo in response., The rest of this memo will be about fleshing out this theme (meaning you can stop reading here if you’ve had enough or are short on time)., If “On the Couch” wasn’t successful in convincing you this isn’t possible, this memo probably won’t be, either., I set a trap at the beginning of this memo, and I want to spring it now.
There They Go Again...Again

All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: There They Go Again . . ., As I tell it, after ten years without a single response, that one made my memo writing an overnight success., Ditto In January 2013, I wrote a memo entitled “Ditto.”, The Seeds for a Boom My son Andrew worked extensively with me in preparing this memo., Most of what remains for the meat of this memo will consist of descriptions of things afoot in the markets today.
Ruminating on Asset Allocation

When I travel to see clients and spend entire days discussing investing and the markets, memo ideas often pop up., Before I proceed, I want to mention that, from time to time in this memo, I’ll say “generally,” “usually,” or “everything else being equal.”, For the purposes of this memo, however, it might help to think of it as “fixed outcome” investing., The Essential Choice At the outset of this memo, I listed some of the decisions that comprise the asset allocation process., So, in a memo in 2006, I took the same line and superimposed on it some bell-shaped curves representing probability distributions turned on their side.