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The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters - June 2023 Edition
As a bonus, we’ve also included an excerpt from Howard Marks’s recent memo to clients. 1 Market Outlook: Tug-of-War Howard Marks Co-Chairman The overarching theme of my sea-change thinking is that, largely thanks to highly accommodative monetary policy, we went through unusually easy times in a number of important regards over a prolonged period, but that time is over., Thus, after decades of accommodative monetary policy, cheap debt, and robust equity returns, we may now be entering a new era, as our co-chairman Howard Marks eloquently described in his 2022 memo Sea Change.
Hemlines
Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a rks Re: Hemlines While the details change, the pendulum-like fluctuation of investment styles is a constant., This memo will be about recurring patterns, the history of stocks and bonds as I know it, and the adage’s applicability to that history., (Given that I average a memo every couple of months, I find the very idea daunting.)
How Does an Inefficient Market Get That Way
Well, this memo was occasioned by an article in "Pensions & Investments" reporting consultant SEI's recommendation that pension plan sponsors invest 10% to 30% of their fixed income portfolios in high yield bonds.
Nobody Knows (Yet Again)
I thought I should comment on these developments and the outlook, and the result was a memo called Nobody Knows, published four days later., In March 2020, I reused the title of the 2008 memo for Nobody Knows II, my first memo during the Covid-19 pandemic., The Uncertain Outlook In my February memo 2024 in Review, which went only to clients, I said the word to describe the Trump administration was “uncertainty.”, Truly nobody knows, and a lot of this memo will be about things we can’t know for sure., Note that in my March 2022 memo, The Pendulum in International Affairs, I observed that between 1995 and 2020, U.S. consumer durable prices declined by 40% in real terms and total inflation averaged only 1.8% per year.
The Impact of Debt
My partner Bruce Karsh recently supplied me with a newspaper article about chess that inspired me to write a brief memo called The Indispensability of Risk ., Thus encouraged, I’m following up with another short memo., Housel’s approach to thinking about debt – and especially his illustrations – reminded me of my December 2008 memo, Volatility + Leverage = Dynamite ., (Unless otherwise indicated, this memo is the source of the quotations that follow; in all cases, emphasis is in the original.), In that memo, I used a series of simple graphics to show that the lower a company’s debt load is, the greater the decline in fortune it could survive.
The Folly of Certainty
And, with that, I had the subject of this memo: not whether Biden will continue campaigning or drop out – or whether he’ll win if he continues – but rather how anyone can be without doubt., , has supplied an interesting tidbit for this memo on the subject of economists’ conclusions: I use the Philly Fed’s Anxious Index (the probability of a decline in real GDP in the upcoming quarter) as an indicator that a recession has ended., Back in mid-2020, when the pandemic seemed to have become a more or less understood phenomenon, I slowed the pace of my memo writing from the one-a-week pattern of March and April., P.S.: Last summer’s Grand Slam tennis tournaments provided the inspiration for my memo Fewer Losers, or More Winners?, Similarly, this past Saturday’s women’s final match at Wimbledon has provided a snippet for this memo.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it., I’ve written so much about this that I’m not going to belabor it further (see my memo Ruminating on Asset Allocation, October 2024), but I’m always available to talk., Credit Versus Equities I’ve written about equity valuations – primarily referencing the Standard & Poor’s 500 – as recently as this January in my memo On Bubble Watch.
Hey Steward!!
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: Hey,Steward!!, My October memo “The Feeling’s Mutual” argued that late trading wasn’t the worst thing going on in the mutual fund industry., [Before I go further, I want to do something I failed to do in October: make clear that neither my earlier memo nor this one is intended as a universal indictment of the mutual fund industry.
What Can We Do for You?
Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: What Can We Do For You?, Oaktree on Market Timing This memo provides an ideal opportunity for me to discuss Oaktree’s position on these matters and address some potential inconsistencies., Thoughts on Portfolio Positioning I’m going to use the context of this memo to set out a way of thinking about portfolio structuring that I’ve developed recently, and to show how I would apply it today.
What Does the Market Know?
All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: What Does the Market Know?, ” That prompted this memo in response., The rest of this memo will be about fleshing out this theme (meaning you can stop reading here if you’ve had enough or are short on time)., If “On the Couch” wasn’t successful in convincing you this isn’t possible, this memo probably won’t be, either., I set a trap at the beginning of this memo, and I want to spring it now.