Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

I thought I should comment on these developments and the outlook, and the result was a memo called Nobody Knows, published four days later., In March 2020, I reused the title of the 2008 memo for Nobody Knows II, my first memo during the Covid-19 pandemic., Truly nobody knows, and a lot of this memo will be about things we can’t know for sure., As I asked in a memo in September, is it a good idea for nations to try to repeal or resist the laws of economics in an effort to make it otherwise?, This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

More on Repealing the Laws of Economics

All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: More on Repealing the Laws of Economics Last September, I wrote a memo titled Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?, Rent Control A prime example discussed in my September memo was rent control., All Rights Reserved Follow us: Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

Performing Credit Quarterly 2Q2022: Shifting Gears

Consequently, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 45 bps between June 13 and June 30, while yield spreads widened across credit asset classes.1 As we assess recession risk and how an economic downturn might impact credit markets, we’re reminded of something Howard Marks recently wrote in his memo Bull Market Rhymes : The price of an asset is based on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals.

2020 in Review

Thus, you might end up feeling this memo should have been titled Preview of 2021 rather than 2020 in Review., Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree. ©2021 Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.

The Roundup June 2025 Edition

Ta k e April 9, for example, one of the most memorable trading days of my career, where we saw the following: • Pre-Market: Long-dated Treasury yields rose above 5% and S&P 500 futures were down 2% • 7:00am ET: The high yield bond market opened down 1-5 points depending on the structure • 9:30am ET: The stock market opened, and President Trump shared high conviction market messages on social media, including that “it is a great time to buy” • 1:15pm ET: A 90-day pause on tariffs was announced for a broad list of countries • 1:30pm ET: High yield bond prices immediately bounced back, erasing the day’s losses, and many moved higher on the day • 4:00pm ET: The S&P 500 closed up 9.5% and the NASDAQ closed up 12.2% on the day • 4:30pm ET: Economist calls for a recession made just hours earlier were rescinded This day was the most extreme but much of early April had a similar profile as investors sought clarity amid evolving trade negotiations.

Behind the Memo - The Pendulum in International Affairs

1998-01-08-who-knew

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClientsandFriends From: HowardMarks Re: WhoKnew?, And yet, in my last memo on September 3, 1997, I may actually have made a correct prediction, as follows: What could cause a market decline?, A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2002-03-14-learning-from-enron

Sherron Watkins might be the closest thing thus far, and she certainly did raise red flags in her memo of August., Before I do so, I'll have to get over the large number of references in her memo not to what was right or wrong, but to what might be found out., Control freaks with great memories left things to others or can't remember what happened., I apologize for the length of this memo, but the Enron matter is so sweeping and multi- faceted that I found it inescapable., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2003-09-05-whats-your-game-plan

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : What’sYourGame Plan?, UFinding Your Role Model An article in the Wall Street Journal of August 8, entitled “Greatness in Our Midst,” supplied the immediate impetus for this memo., A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d UBack to Tennis for the Wrap-up Just as this memo was going into the home stretch, the Wall Street Journal’s Allan Barra greeted the start of the U.S., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2009-01-09-the-long-view

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : TheLongView Manyofmy memos over the last year and a half have touched on the developments in 2003-07 that brought on the current financial crisis., My last memo was on the subject of leverage and its major role in the crisis we’re all experiencing., The first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory., Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at © O a k t r e e C a p i t a l M a n a g e m e n t , L ., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.