Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

I thought I should comment on these developments and the outlook, and the result was a memo called Nobody Knows, published four days later., In March 2020, I reused the title of the 2008 memo for Nobody Knows II, my first memo during the Covid-19 pandemic., Truly nobody knows, and a lot of this memo will be about things we can’t know for sure., As I asked in a memo in September, is it a good idea for nations to try to repeal or resist the laws of economics in an effort to make it otherwise?, This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

Memo Podcast

Memo Podcast

Oaktree Capital Management

Read More Insights Education May 6, 2025 30 Years of Oaktree with Howard Marks, Bruce Karsh, and Sheldon Stone Listen Market Commentary May 1, 2025 Gridlock Read Education Apr 10, 2025 Celebrating Oaktree’s 30th Anniversary Watch memos Apr 9, 2025 Nobody Knows (Yet Again) Read memos Apr 9, 2025, Nobody Knows (Yet Again) Listen Market Commentary Apr 8, 2025 Off the Beaten Path with Matt Wilson, Christina Lee, and Jennifer Marques Listen Market Commentary Mar 31, 2025 The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters – March 2025 Edition Read Education Mar 11, 2025 Oaktree Hyderabad Office Opening Watch memos Mar 6, 2025 Gimme Credit Read View All Press View All

The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters - March 2024 Edition

Private credit based on Oaktree observations in the market, as of February 29, 2024. 3 Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks discussed this view in detail in his recent memo, Easy Money. 4 This refers to the yield-to-two-year-call. 5 Based on Oaktree observations in the market, as of February 29, 2024. 6 Bank of America, as of January 5, 2024. 7 JP Morgan, as of February 14, 2024. 8 Based on estimates from industry peers, as of October 26, 2023. 9 Real Capital Analytics, as of February 29, 2024. 10 Refinitiv Global Focus Convertible Bond Index (USD Hedged), FTSE All-World Total Return Index (Local Currency), as of December 31, 2023. 11 Bloomberg, as of January 31, 2024. 12 BofA Global Research, as of December 31, 2023. 13 BofA Global Research, as of December 31, 2023. 14 MSCI China Index, as of January 31, 2024

The Memo: On the Couch

Behind the Memo – The Impact of Debt with Howard Marks and Morgan Housel

Behind the Memo - Selling Out

I Beg to Differ

The Essential Difference In 2006, I wrote a memo called Dare to Be Great., Thus, in 2014, I followed up on 2006’s Dare to Be Great with a memo creatively titled Dare to Be Great II., And yet, as I mentioned in my January memo, Selling Out, the S&P 500 has returned about 10½% a year on average over that century-plus., Ever since I quoted Bill Miller in that memo, I’ve been impressed by his formulation that “it’s time, not timing” that leads to real wealth accumulation., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

Fewer Losers, or More Winners?

My memos got their start in October 1990, inspired by an interesting juxtaposition between two events., This time, in my fourth decade of memo-writing, I’m going to devote a few more paragraphs to tennis., In my memo Liquidity (March 2015), I included an insight from my son Andrew., The Role of Risk Bearing I’m going to conclude this memo using my favorite graph., In my memo What Really Matters?

Coming into Focus

Roughly two months have passed since my last memo, Time for Thinking, and still not much has changed in the economy or the markets., Thus, I’m going to use this memo to go into greater detail on a few topics., I touched on a few of them in my last memo, but I’m going to undertake a fuller treatment of the subject here., October 13, 2020 Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.