2010-03-17-id-rather-be-wrong

 Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : I’dRatherBeWrong Just a few weeks ago, I published “Tell Me I’m Wrong,” my latest list of things in the investment environment that I find worth worrying about., I’m going to devote a few pages here – I promise this’ll be the shortest memo in years – to a point I touched on in “What Worries Me” (August 28, 2008) but omitted from the more recent piece., This memo will be about one of the inarguably most depressing topics of our time: the seeming inability of governments and politicians to solve – or even tackle – the financial problems we face., This memo is inspired by two excellent newspaper articles that appeared within the last month: “Party Gridlock Feeds New Fear of a Debt Crisis,” by Jackie Calmes (The New York Times, February 17) * and “Perils of the California Model” by David Wessel (The Wall Street Journal, March 4)

Behind the Memo - The Illusion of Knowledge

Behind the Memo - On Bubble Watch

The Pendulum in International Affairs

The following is only a partial list of my writings on the subject: My second memo, written in April 1991, was creatively titled First Quarter Performance., My very first memo, The Route to Performance, resulted from two events I witnessed in short order, the juxtaposition of which led to what I thought was an important observation., At a recent meeting of the Brookfield Asset Management board, a discussion of Ukraine triggered an association with another aspect of international affairs – offshoring – which I first discussed in the memo Economic Reality (May 2016)., Thus the inspiration for this memo., But I think juxtaposing them is informative . . . and worthy of a memo.

Thinking About Macro

To invert the Buffett quote that began this memo, the macro future may not be knowable, but it certainly is important., That’s why I’m devoting a memo to a subject I largely disavow., As a result, I wrote a memo saying the market needed a trip to a psychiatrist (On the Couch, January 14, 2016)., I concluded my 2016 memo What Does the Market Know?, The answer lies in the title of a 2001 memo of mine: You Can’t Predict.

Behind the Memo - Fewer Losers, or More Winners?

1996-07-22-the-value-of-predictions-II-or-give-that-man-a-cigar

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo To: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: TheValueofPredictionsII(or"GiveThatManaCigar") Date: July22, 1996 In a February 1993 memo entitled "The Value of Predictions," I expressed my negative opinion of attempts to predict the macro-future., I pointed out in my 1993 memo that most of the time, you can't get superior results with inaccurate forecasts or with accurate forecasts that reflect the consensus.

2005-06-06-a-case-in-point

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : ACaseinPoint Lastmonth, my memo “There They Go Again” discussed investors’ propensity to repeat certain classic mistakes., Needing a new “gig,” Thorp turned his attention to another field in which subjective judgment could be improved upon through computer simulation: convertible arbitrage (I’ll bet you were wondering what blackjack had to do with the subject of this memo)., Anyway, this isn’t a memo about convertible arbitrage, but about investors’ persistent mistakes.

Behind the Memo - The Pendulum in International Affairs

1993-02-15-the-value-of-predictions-or-where'd-all-this-rain-come-from

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: Clients From: HowardMarks,TCW Re: TheValueof Predictions, or Where'd All This Rain Come From?, The motivation for this memo came as I considered the extraordinary amount of precipitation the West has experienced this year -- and newspaper articles of a couple of months ago.