292 results for "memo":
Showing 71 - 80 of 292 results
The Illusion of Knowledge
Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult.
Sea Change
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years.
The Value of Predictions II or Give That Man a Cigar
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo To: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: TheValueofPredictionsII(or"GiveThatManaCigar") Date: July22, 1996 In a February 1993 memo entitled "The Value of Predictions," I expressed my negative opinion of attempts to predict the macro-future., I pointed out in my 1993 memo that most of the time, you can't get superior results with inaccurate forecasts or with accurate forecasts that reflect the consensus.
A Case in Point
A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : ACaseinPoint Lastmonth, my memo “There They Go Again” discussed investors’ propensity to repeat certain classic mistakes., Needing a new “gig,” Thorp turned his attention to another field in which subjective judgment could be improved upon through computer simulation: convertible arbitrage (I’ll bet you were wondering what blackjack had to do with the subject of this memo)., Anyway, this isn’t a memo about convertible arbitrage, but about investors’ persistent mistakes.
High Yield Bonds Today
Memo to: OaktreeHighYieldBondClients From: HowardMarksandSheldonStone Re: HighYieldBondsToday Clientsoftenaskforourviewsonthehighyieldbondmarket: “Do we think prices are too high?”, (This is in essence what Howard concluded in his most recent memo, “Ditto.”)
Taking the Temperature
Thus, I said so in the memo bubble.com, which was published as 2000 began., In July 2007, I published the memo It’s All Good, in which I was more emphatic (and had better timing): Where do we stand in the cycle?, Here’s how I put it in a memo I wrote that day: Skepticism and pessimism aren’t synonymous., This is how things stood in March 2012, when I wrote the memo Déjà Vu All Over Again., As I wrote in that same memo: What do we know?
The Indispensability of Risk
That’s why I’ve written a memo comparing investing to sports in each of the four decades I’ve been writing memos and one connecting investing and card playing in 2020., The motivation for this memo comes from an article in The Wall Street Journal of April 12 that my partner Bruce Karsh sent me entitled “Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice” by Maurice Ashley, a chess grandmaster who has been inducted into the U.S., Few people know that Bruce is a chess player, and I hadn’t thought about this fact for years, but the article provided a good reminder and moved me to dash off this memo., Relevant lessons from sports (included in past memos) are easily accessed and also very helpful: • “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” – Wayne Gretzky, NHL Hall of Famer • “You have to give yourself a chance to fail.” – Kenny “The Jet” Smith, two-time NBA champion I’ll sum up with a paragraph from my memo of last September, Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
On Bubble Watch
The memo had two things going for it: it was right, and it was right fast., Some of what I write here will be familiar to anyone who read my December memo about the macro picture., But that memo only went to Oaktree clients, so I’m going to recycle here the part of its content that relates to the subject of bubbles., As many of my memo readers know, I joined the equity research department at First National City Bank (now Citi) in September 1969., * * * As I said at the start of this memo, I’m not an equity investor, and I’m certainly no expert on technology.
Conversations - Full Return World - Transcript
Howard, why were you interested in writing a follow-up to your memo, Sea Change?, And of course, the original Sea Change thesis came out of client visits that I made in October and November, and then the memo was released in December., I’ve never written a memo before that talked about something of the magnitude of the sea change that I think we’re going through., Anna So the last specific question I’ll ask about this memo, Howard, is for you, and it’s about capital allocation because it’s obviously a big part of the memo Further Thoughts on Sea Change., I discussed this in a memo called Race to the Bottom in February ’07, which unfortunately turned out to be right in the Global Financial Crisis.
Nobody Knows (Yet Again)
I thought I should comment on these developments and the outlook, and the result was a memo called Nobody Knows, published four days later., In March 2020, I reused the title of the 2008 memo for Nobody Knows II, my first memo during the Covid-19 pandemic., The Uncertain Outlook In my February memo 2024 in Review, which went only to clients, I said the word to describe the Trump administration was “uncertainty.”, Truly nobody knows, and a lot of this memo will be about things we can’t know for sure., As I asked in a memo in September, is it a good idea for nations to try to repeal or resist the laws of economics in an effort to make it otherwise?