Behind the Memo - The Pendulum in International Affairs

Easy Money

I received excellent feedback on the memo from clients – encouragement that pro mpted the many memos that have followed., I thank Zach Kessler, a regular memo reader, for sending it., As I asked at the time in my memo There They Go Again . . ., Thus, I wrote as follows in my memo You Can’ t Predict., The first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory.

2002-11-11-returns-and-how-they-get-that-way

 Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: Returns and How They Get That Way "Where do babies come from?", The Role of Luck To end this memo on returns, I want to spend a few pages discussing the part played by randomness (or luck or chance)., A L L R I G H T S R E S E R V E D Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree

1998-01-08-who-knew

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClientsandFriends From: HowardMarks Re: WhoKnew?, And yet, in my last memo on September 3, 1997, I may actually have made a correct prediction, as follows: What could cause a market decline?, A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2002-03-14-learning-from-enron

Sherron Watkins might be the closest thing thus far, and she certainly did raise red flags in her memo of August., Before I do so, I'll have to get over the large number of references in her memo not to what was right or wrong, but to what might be found out., Control freaks with great memories left things to others or can't remember what happened., I apologize for the length of this memo, but the Enron matter is so sweeping and multi- faceted that I found it inescapable., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2003-09-05-whats-your-game-plan

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : What’sYourGame Plan?, UFinding Your Role Model An article in the Wall Street Journal of August 8, entitled “Greatness in Our Midst,” supplied the immediate impetus for this memo., A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d UBack to Tennis for the Wrap-up Just as this memo was going into the home stretch, the Wall Street Journal’s Allan Barra greeted the start of the U.S., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2009-01-09-the-long-view

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : TheLongView Manyofmy memos over the last year and a half have touched on the developments in 2003-07 that brought on the current financial crisis., My last memo was on the subject of leverage and its major role in the crisis we’re all experiencing., The first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory., Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at © O a k t r e e C a p i t a l M a n a g e m e n t , L ., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2011-03-02-on-regulation

Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: OnRegulation I’ve been asked why there weren’t any memos during the twelve weeks between September 9 and December 1., It pulls together all of the strands of my philosophy into what might be thought of as a super-memo.,  Memory of the events behind the demand for regulation will fade, This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree

2015-09-09-its-not-easy

This memo is largely about the challenges they present, All Rights Reserved Second-Level Thinking I always thought that when I retired, I would write a book pulling together the elements of investment philosophy discussed in my memos., And yet I’ve never covered it explicitly for the readers of my memos., Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

Implications of the Election_11716

All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: Implications of the Election I’m starting this memo a week before Election Day., But after a post-election memo in 2012 that proved far too optimistic, I say, “why quit now?”, Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree